Understanding consumer demand for new transport technologies and services, and implications for the future of mobility

The transport sector is witnessing unprecedented levels of disruption. Privately owned cars that operate on internal combustion engines have been the dominant modes of passenger transport for much of the last century. However, recent advances in transport technologies and services, such as the development of autonomous vehicles, the emergence of shared mobility services, and the commercialization of alternative fuel vehicle technologies, promise to revolutionise how humans travel. The implications are profound: some have predicted the end of private car dependent Western societies, others have portended greater suburbanization than has ever been observed before. If transport systems are to fulfil current and future needs of different subpopulations, and satisfy short and long-term societal objectives, it is imperative that we comprehend the many factors that shape individual behaviour. This chapter introduces the technologies and services most likely to disrupt prevailing practices in the transport sector. We review past studies that have examined current and future demand for these new technologies and services, and their likely short and long-term impacts on extant mobility patterns. We conclude with a summary of what these new technologies and services might mean for the future of mobility.Comment: 15 pages, 0 figures, book chapte

Assessing planning decisions by activity type during the scheduling process

Existing activity-based models still make assumptions about scheduling decision processes that are not well-informed by empirical evidence. In this article, a step forward is taken to better understand the activity-scheduling process and to improve activity-based models. In particular, different planning decision mechanisms depending on several activity type classifications are explored. First, models describing the planning of several aggregate activity types are considered. For these activities, three planning decisions are studied: location, planning time horizon and rescheduling. The 'with whom' planning decision is also studied when subtypes of recreational/entertainment activities are investigated in depth. Significant differences are found in modelling results for each activity type and subtype and each planning decision. These results confirm the existence of different mechanisms underlying the activity-travel decision process when activity types and subtypes are considered. Important conclusions related to the improvement of microsimulation models are highlighted.Ruiz Sánchez, T.; Roorda, MJ. (2011). Assessing planning decisions by activity type during the scheduling process. Transportmetrica. 7(6):417-442. doi:10.1080/18128602.2010.520276S4174427

A random utility maximization (RUM) based dynamic activity scheduling model: Application in weekend activity scheduling

Travel demand model, Activity-based model, Activity scheduling, RUM, Discrete-continuous choice,

Incorporating planned activities and events in a dynamic multi-day activity agenda generator

Daily agenda formation is influenced by formal commitments, satisfaction of needs surpassing some threshold and the desire to conduct particular activities in anticipation of socially and religiously driven events such as birthdays, Christmas, etc. As part of a research program to develop a dynamic activity-based model of transport demand, this paper proposes a model to represent dynamic agenda formation, including these different underlying processes. Bayesian estimation of the model is based on data collected through a Web-based survey for a sample of approximately 300 respondents. The survey uses an extension of a 1-day activity diary where respondents are asked to recall activities in retrospect and to identify planned activities in prospect. Estimation results suggest that planned activities influence agenda formation in general, but that their significance and size depends on activity type, socio-demographics and dwelling characteristics